But was I really going to let my grand gambling experiment end like this? “You’re gambling, McKay,” he said disapprovingly. If I put everything I had left on the Patriots moneyline and they won, I would end the season up about $5,000. But I was also seduced by the allure of a big, go-for-broke win, the chance to dig out of the hole I’d dug myself into. I had what I thought were sound analytical reasons to believe the sportsbooks were underestimating the Patriots.
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- A couple of days before Thanksgiving, I called Nate Silver, who was preparing to leave for a poker tournament in the Bahamas.
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Now, with the rise of “prediction markets” like Kalshi and Polymarket, gambling options are no longer limited to sports. The plan ran aground when athletes were apparently awarded identical medals in the same event—the Special Olympics is not, strictly speaking, about winners and losers—and bettors revolted after their payouts were delayed. Unsatisfied with wagering only on Sunday football games? In 2017, Americans legally bet $4.9 billion on sports. They license broadcast rights directly to sportsbook-operated streaming services, and hurry to defend their partners whenever a game-fixing scandal breaks.
In the end, I put $4,735 on the Patriots to win the game, and spent about $700 on a smattering of long-shot parlays and prop bets that ranged from plausible to preposterous. For complicated reasons involving point spreads and, possibly, divine punishment, I somehow managed to correctly pick the winner in 10 out of 12 games through the first three rounds while still losing money. I pointed out that the man at the counter had cited a player injury as the reason bets on the game were limited, but Perry waved me off.
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On my last day in Vegas, I finally caught up with Perry at Circa, whose sportsbook features a 1,000-seat theater, a 78-million-pixel Jumbotron, and half a dozen rooftop swimming pools from which gamblers can watch games and place bets. Over several frenzied days in December, I disregarded every rule Silver had taught me—throwing money at random prop bets and constructing multi-leg parlays like I was a mad scientist mixing volatile compounds in a lab. When I’d started out, I put no more than $100 on most games; now I was betting up to $500—impatiently swiping to deposit more money when DraftKings or FanDuel told me I was out of funds. Florida allows online sports betting only through an app called Hard Rock Bet, whose servers are on Native land—the result of a 2021 compromise between gambling lobbyists and the Seminole Tribe.
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Key players in the fight against Big Tobacco told him that online gambling was the next major public-health crisis, and volunteered their help. But the 76-year-old congressman from New York is one of Washington’s few prominent crusaders against the sports-betting industry. A sports-betting savant who had discovered his talent only in middle age? Silver didn’t want to reveal how much money he’d personally wagered on NFL games, but he said if it were 100 “units,” he was down about two-tenths of one unit.
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Silver first made a name for himself as the founder of 538, an election-forecasting website that accurately predicted the winner of all 50 states in the 2012 presidential campaign. He simply ruled that the Constitution empowers states, not the federal government, to regulate gambling, and scrapped the entire legal framework that had been in place for the past quarter century. “After I win this thing—and I’m going to win it—you’re going to thank me.” “I’m not an animal to be bet on, like a horse,” Bradley scolded Christie. He was once cornered at an event by Bill Bradley, the former Knicks player turned senator, and NBA Commissioner David Stern, who both shouted at him so loudly that other attendees started to gawk.
The touchdown was reversed, the play was ruled a fumble, and the Titans proceeded to pull off an improbable 16-point comeback to win the game. “The betting apps are in charge now, and everyone knows it. The leagues, initially so opposed to legalized sports betting, embraced it to help reverse sliding TV ratings and lure back the younger fans who were drifting away. Every major TV network now seems to employ a data whiz with glasses and rolled-up sleeves who can break down the betting angles for viewers at home. ESPN now recaps the day’s games by covering which teams beat the spread; gambling talk pervades pregame studio panels. Virtually every sports-media outlet in America, from CBS Sports to your favorite niche football podcaster, takes sponsorship money from gambling companies.
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NFL football was among the hardest sports to win money on—the lines were too sharp, the teams too evenly matched. Sports betting was a game of razor-thin margins and microscopic edges. Also, televised games are broadcast on a delay, which means the sportsbooks can adjust lines before you even see what has happened on the field.
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